Entries Tagged 'Breeding Theory' ↓
August 10th, 2017 — Breeding Theory
The themes of my first two articles in this series have been that, firstly, luck is the central component to breeding success and, secondly, that inbreeding, for all the theories that abound and the thousands of column inches which have been written extolling its virtues, is very much a two-edged sword.
I’m not arguing that inbreeding is doomed to fail – or that it has no place in the thoroughbred breeder’s arsenal. All I’m saying is that it’s a technique that needs to be used with caution – especially as there is some extraordinarily dodgy science referenced in the most reputable publications, “science” which seems to suggest that sex-balancing stallions or mares in a pedigree is the recipe for success.
For the life of me, I just can’t see how this works. To begin with, when you’re breeding anything – humans, horses or hamsters – you do get some quite unexpected results. I’m not trying to be offensive, but just think of your own relatives. Sure, they are highly unlikely to be the result of inbreeding but there will be some surprises out there. If you are inbreeding, and I’m not writing about humans here, there’s still an awful lot of variability involved.
One reason why inbreeding enthusiasts sometimes are disappointed by the results of their efforts is that they have made one fundamentally incorrect assumption – that when a name appears more than once on a pedigree printout it means the same thing – in terms of genetic inheritance – on both occasions. As an example, let’s look at Zabeel and a couple of his sire sons, Savabeel and Zed. Even a cursory inspection of these two animals will show that there is a significant difference in their physical make up. Now let’s fast forward 15 years and assume we have a grand-daughter of Zed and we’re thinking of sending her to a grandson of Savabeel because we’re rather keen on Zabeel blood. Are we really increasing our chances of a significant number of those magic Zabeel genes ending up in our foal?
I think not.
August 6th, 2017 — Breeding Theory
When I first became interested in breeding thoroughbreds back in the late 1960’s, I read everything I could find on the subject. It quickly became apparent that there were two main schools of thought as to how one could produce superior animals. One established opinion recommended inbreeding to “desirable” ancestors; the opposing group to theorists thought that outcrossing as far as possible was the way to go. This latter group even went to the extent of using emotive terms such as “incestuous” to describe what they considered to be excessively close inbreeding.
As we all know, the way the breed has developed means that every thoroughbred is inbred to some extent but the question is, should we try to make this occur as distantly as possible or should we do the opposite? Or, as is so true in other areas of life, does the truth exist somewhere in the middle?
The first point to consider is that inbreeding clearly improves our chances of breeding a good horse. The catch is that it also improves our chances of breeding a bad one. If you reduce the gene pool, it all depends which combination of genes comes through as to whether your pride and joy gains black type or struggles to keep up in a maiden event at Hokitika. (I once owned an Oregon filly with the most beautifully balanced pedigree you could imagine; unfortunately she found West Coast competition far too hot). The more inbred your racehorse is, the more likely it is to be very good or very bad.
Advocates of inbreeding often use the adjective “judicious” to qualify either “inbreeding” or “linebreeding”. I would argue that we don’t really know whether it’s judicious or not until the horse in question is well into its racing career. To be fair, those who use the term often mean that a little inbreeding is no bad thing, but let’s not overdo it. However, the plain truth is that it’s impossible to ascertain whether or not an example of inbreeding in a particular horse’s pedigree has any influence at all in its level of performance. Any attempt to over-simplify a remarkably complex process is always doomed to fail.
Putting that argument to the side, there does seem to be a fair amount of evidence to suggest that duplicating some stallions or mares may coincide with a good level of racing performance in general. For example, there are many very useful racehorses which are inbred to Northern Dancer, Somethingroyal and Lalun.
However, the converse is equally true (also in general). A few decades ago I bred several horses with the great mare Eulogy duplicated in their pedigrees. The best of them was a maiden winner at Woodville. Similarly, inbreeding to Danehill appears to be fraught with danger at the moment.
All in all, inbreeding can be spectacularly successful but you’ve got to be (a) lucky and (b) careful. Beware complicated theories because theories are just that.
August 5th, 2017 — Breeding Theory, Horse Racing, News
It’s always a thrill to be associated with a Group winner, but it’s a special feeling when the horse concerned can win a Group event at nine years of age, giving weight to much younger rivals.
The son of Darci Brahma and the Royal Academy mare Royal Kiss was a real enigma earlier in his career, losing several major races which he could well have won, but now he seems to be much more consistent in his approach to racing. Apprentice Kate Cowan rides him superbly and showed no signs of panic when he was well out of his ground with 800 to run.
From a pedigree point of view, it’s worth nothing that he’s bred on the same Danehill – Royal Academy cross that features in the genetic make-up of the brilliant Fastnet Rock, this being an extension of the highly successful Danzig-Nijinsky nick. When I recommended the mating which produced him, I was also well aware of the affinity between Danehill and Sharpen Up (as evidenced in Danehill Dancer).
Sure, the pedigree features inbreeding to Northern Dancer, Natalma, Native Dancer, Menow, Buckpasser and Rockefella and it could be argued by linebreeding enthusiasts that it’s these duplications which make Nashville as good as he is. Nevertheless, it’s unarguable that close relatives have a greater influence on genetic make-up than do distant ones and I’ve always been a fan of not ignoring the obvious. Darci Brahma clearly passes on what we would agree are identifiable Danehill traits. When finding a stallion to suit a mare with Royal Academy and Sharpen Up close up, why would you not start with by looking for a well-credentialed son of Danehill, given the evidence we have that the Danehill – Royal Academy – Sharpen Up blend has a good chance of success.
Yes, as you will suspect, my next article on the truth and lies in thoroughbred breeding will focus on inbreeding and some of the myths that surround it.
July 29th, 2017 — Breeding Theory
Quite some time ago now I recall making the point that although it’s understandable that we breeders, especially those relatively new to the industry, can spend much time looking for the silver bullet, the theory that will lead to an avalanche of black-type winners, such a search is doomed to fail. Firstly, there have been so many smart people engaged on this quest that you’d think that one of them would have found the magic formula long since; secondly, no-one’s found it for the simple reason that it doesn’t exist.
This not to denigrate the remarkable level of success that some breeders have experienced but you’d have to take into account other factors when evaluating their success – apart from any magic genetic formula they may or may not have had. For example, some have been fabulously wealthy: Nelson Bunker Hunt did pretty well as a breeder before his ill-judged attempt to corner the global market in silver. Others have been expert horsemen and ruthless cullers of animals which didn’t turn out to be up to the standard expected – think Federico Tesio, the legendary Italian breeder.
My argument is that there’s one factor that supersedes all others and that’s sheer blind luck. Some of us will have bred a good horse early in our breeding careers and drawn the totally erroneous conclusion that this business is easy. In a sense that’s the worst luck of all because it leads to blind faith in our own brilliance leading to unwarranted expense and ultimate failure. We always need to remember that however clever we think we are, it’s chance that dictates which sperm gets to that egg first.
However, that’s not to say that we’re all doomed and that if we are not fortune’s darlings we have no hope of success. There are certainly some tactics we can use to nudge the odds just a little in our favour. Just one of these is to acquire a working knowledge of equine genetics.
In the remainder of this series of articles I’m going to focus on some of the myths and legends of genetics which, if we put our faith in them, will certainly lead to unjustified expense, if not abject failure.
July 22nd, 2017 — Breeding Theory, Choosing A Stallion
As I’ve mentioned in a previous article, it’s extraordinarily difficult to make an intelligent assessment of a stallion’s likelihood of success until his first crop hits the yearling sales – and it’s challenging enough to do so then.
Sure, there are some of us who are really good judges of foals but the old adage of “fools and foals go together” has more than an element of truth about it. Nonetheless, breeders always look forward to the first crop of a stallion’s foals just in case the progeny of their favourite horse really do catch the eye. Leading the charge are, of course, the studmasters who have sweated blood to obtain the best possible book of mares for their new stallion the previous Spring.
In spite of the above comments, there is one prophecy I can make with the absolute certainty of being correct. No studmaster is going to be quoted as saying, “Well, I have to say that if this is the best that Bob’s Revenge can do in terms of siring foals, I might as well sell up now and move to Fiji.” What we do hear are comments like, “Bob’s Revenge has left a striking line of foals with excellent bone and amazing natural muscle.” Because breeders just have to be positive people in order to survive in the industry, we do tend to lap up this sort of report. We forget that judging bone in a foal is virtually impossible and that there’s no alternative to ”natural “ muscle. We also forget that published photographs of foals won’t be random. No-one is going to display an undersized foal with crooked legs. Besides, most foals are pretty cute anyway.
Now I’m not suggesting that studmasters are chronic liars. Anything but. When you’re running a business you’ve got to be positive about what you produce. However, what I am suggesting that if you are thinking of using a second-season sire, it’s really worthwhile to see as many of the horse’s early foals as you possibly can. If you have an empty mare or an early-foaling one, that’s going to be more than a tricky proposition. On the other hand, if you are thinking of breeding a later-foaling mare, then it does pay to get in the car and do your homework. You’ll need to remember that your research will be anything but conclusive but you will be able to make some sort of assessment about such variables as size, correctness and attitude.
In my opinion, it’s attitude that’s the crucial variable. A foal that has the confidence to cruise up to a stranger and say gidday is always preferable to one that uses its mother as a shield against a frightening world.
July 12th, 2017 — Breeding Theory, Choosing A Stallion
It’s difficult enough to choose the right stallion for your mare but it’s even more challenging when you are shooting entirely blindfolded. I’ve always has a strong preference for third or fourth season stallions as by that stage breeders have some idea what a stallion’s progeny look like. In particular, if the horse throws conformational or temperament problems, it’s always nice to know about these before one invests the hard-earned.
Nevertheless, it is one of the mysteries of the universe that yearling buyers seem to have a mystical affinity with the untried and unproven. And, as we all know, it’s nice to be able to get good money for a yearling so the temptation to humour buyers and give them what they want is very hard to resist. We may end up by devaluing our mares but fashion and short-term gain seems to win every time. Beats me.
Anyway, having got that off my chest and admitting that, up to a point, I have no idea what I am commencing to write about, this year’s new stallions don’t seem to be a bad lot at all.
I’ll admit that I have a soft spot for Turn Me Loose. Strength, speed and class are attributes we broodmare owners are always strongly attracted by and the son of Iffraaj had all three qualities in abundance. Sure, you wouldn’t want to risk sending a Danehill- line mare to him but there are no other leading bloodlines that we would have reservations about. His fee also appears very reasonable.
A second horse which really appeals is Wrote. If you win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and are by High Chaparral from a mare descending from Special, you must have a decent chance of making it as a stallion. If you stand at the bargain fee of $5000 you start to look very attractive indeed.
And then there’s Vadamos. Any stallion with an annual Timeform of 126 is a pretty handy animal and you’ve got to be a very high-class racehorse indeed to win the Chantilly Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, often referred to as the mile championship of Europe. As a bonus, he’s bred on the same cross as Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist. $15,000 seems very fair value.
Please do not draw the conclusion that the other seven newcomers have little to recommend them. All in all, they are a highly promising group of stallions and let’s hope they all leave stunning progeny
June 23rd, 2017 — Breeding Theory, Choosing A Stallion, News
Many of us will recently have received a copy of the NZTBA’s excellent “Register of Thoroughbred Stallions of New Zealand 2017”. It’s a great reference volume but it’s certainly a concern that the range of stallions available to Kiwi breeders reduces on an annual basis.
This is not a complaint about our stallion owners. It takes a significant degree of financial courage to stand a horse at stud and there are very few stallions in the Register which are overpriced. In fact, the reverse is true. Darci Brahma is an absolute steal, as are Pentire and Keeper. Of the up and coming types, Shocking, Showcasing, Zacinto and Highly Recommended are examples of stallions which are well worth their advertised fees.
Clearly, the annual exodus of mares over the Tasman to visit Australian-based stallions makes a lot of sense for our breeders. We operate in an increasingly global industry and it’s unfair to blame breeders for making informed financial decisions, especially as some Australian operations offer significant inducements to attract New Zealand mares. However, it is equally true that every dollar spent by our breeders over there is one dollar less available to our stallion owners for re-investment.
Having said that, this year offers nine first-season stallions, compared to seven last year and five in 2014. In both 2013 and 2015 we also had nine new horses. So, in my view, our studs are doing their very best to maintain a supply of fresh bloodlines. The reason why fewer mares are being mated every year is the staggering level of production costs. I’m sure there are many small breeders like myself who structure their activities around their own small landholding; moving to town would mean the end of our breeding activities.
Anyway, from a personal point of view, the number of enquiries I’ve had for mating advice is very heartening. Clients are understandably motivated by getting value for money and it’s really important that the industry supports its members by offering a range of payment plans for service fees. Breeders have long memories and a good deal offered in one year will often lead to that wonderful phenomenon of repeat business.
January 2nd, 2017 — Breeding Theory, News
Like the rest of her owners, I was thrilled with Candle In The Wind’s close second in yesterday’s $200,000 City of Auckland Cup. It was her first Group placing and a tribute to the training skills of Donna Logan and Chris Gibbs and the horsemanship of Cameron Lammas. She has now won over $200,000 – not a bad return for the little filly costing a mere $2500 at the Select Sale of her year.
Values have moved ahead in the last five years, with this year’s Weanling Sale being a case in point, but having just completed my annual analysis of all three catalogues, I seriously doubt whether this year’s Karaka event will continue the trend.
I would go so far as to say that this is the weakest Premier catalogue that I can recall reading. It is clear that many breeders are either retaining their stock or selling them somewhere offshore. This is bad news for NZ Bloodstock and bad news for many vendors as it is hard to imagine high levels of enthusiasm on the buying benches. K1 colts not meeting the expectations of their vendors can be recycled into Ready to Run 2YOs but fillies tend to sell poorly in November so I am anticipating some comparative bargains amongst this year’s K1 fillies.
The Select catalogue is big, very big. Many lots clearly deserve their place but when you read some pedigree pages you have to say, “Really?” Accordingly, I am predicting some more “Candle” opportunities for astute buyers. Buying yearlings is very much akin to long-distance running; the longer the race the harder it is to concentrate and there are times in any sale with a hefty catalogue when buyers long for a cool drink rather than check out that yearling in a faraway box. This is especially true when sale hits a flat patch and it seems likely that there will be several of these in the 2017 Select Sale.
And, once again, the Festival is where the bargains are. I had more trouble ranking the lots in this sale than in the other two. There are some very clever matings in the slim Festival catalogue but I seriously doubt whether this sale will maintain its upward trend – especially as far as fillies are concerned. I suspect that this catalogue is where the physically backward yearlings have found their place. As we all know, time equates to money and so these yearlings need a special type of buyer – people with experience, patience and a significant level of disposable income. From a breeders’ point of view, let’s hope I’m wrong.
April 19th, 2016 — Breeding Theory, Choosing A Stallion
I part-own a one-win Chinese Dragon mare named Oriental Bronze and have recently been struggling with a problem which many of you will be familiar with. Do I put her back into work? Do I breed from her? Do I move her on?
As I always advise my students, I thought I’d better start by doing my homework. To my surprise I discovered that Chinese Dragon has a 50% winners to starters ratio. As he’s only had one SW, he’s certainly not a good stallion but I’d thought that he was entirely useless. I’d also thought that he’d ended up somewhere like New Caledonia or Thailand, but no, he’s in Oz and standing at $3300.
The information about where he was standing comes from the article referenced below, which is quite fascinating from at least two points of view. Firstly, the Lucky Country has a huge range of stallions standing at very reasonable fees. Here in New Zealand we breeders have a very restricted choice. There are sound economic reasons for this but the fact remains that if we own a mare which lacks commercial appeal, just what do we do? Over-mating her in terms of service fee is just plain daft; we are often left with the choice of going to stallion X or leaving her in the paddock or getting rid of her. Whilst Option C is no doubt the most fiscally sensible solution, there’s always that nagging thought that just maybe she could leave a Bonecrusher or a Grey Way or an All In Fun…
The second thought produced by the article was how crucial opportunity is in a stallion’s career. Whilst Chinese Dragon was lucky enough to end up at Fairdale, he doesn’t seem to have been overly-well patronised by outside breeders with an avalanche of top-class mares. It’s true that assessing opportunity is quite a challenge because we’ve got to factor in the question of genetic suitability of mares for a particular stallion, not just how much black type they have close up in their pedigrees. If you’d like some proof of this, the enduring success of White Robe Lodge is a case in point.
Anyway, here’s the article.
Click Here To Read
October 13th, 2015 — Breeding Theory, Choosing A Stallion
This is a serious horse. Local breeders will remember his dominant front-running display in the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate but some may not be aware that this attractive son of Footstepsinthesand was also successful in Group company in both Ireland and Hong Kong.
Thoroughbreds need to be physically and mentally tough to stand up to 36 starts in Hong Kong and for a stallion to do this is a remarkable achievement. Towards the end of his time in Asia his form did fall away but there are not too many stallions who retained their zest for racing to the extent that when he arrived in New Zealand at seven years of age he was more than making up the numbers at the highest level of competition.
Kiwi breeders may remember him as a front-runner but an examination of his best performances in Hong Kong show that he was a long way from being a one-dimensional racehorse. He certainly showed the ability to accelerate off a strong pace – a quality that many of us look for in assessing a stallion’s prospects. Any stallion with 50 starts on his resume must also have an excellent racing temperament and, as far as soundness is concerned, breeders would have few concerns with an animal which has competed in five different jurisdictions with widely varying racing surfaces.
Finally, those of you who have read my article about He’s Remarkable posted on 3 September will be well aware of my argument that we can easily be guilty of over-using a stallion’s own sire as a predictor of his likely success. If you are considering Pure Champion for your mare, the fact that Footstepsinthesand is not yet a noted sire of sires should not be seen as a negative factor. I’d be more interested in those statistics which tell us that the ability of Pure Champion is no fluke: his sire has produced 42 SWs and 565 winners from 1062 live foals – more than respectable figures.
Pure Champion is currently standing at Willow Glen Stud, Waimate, at the very reasonable fee of $4000 +GST. I am also impressed by Willow Glen’s agistment costs.
